Exit Polls: Philadelphia Primary - The News Junkie
The News Junkie: Exit Polls: Philadelphia Primary

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Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Exit Polls: Philadelphia Primary



Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.

As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.

***Updates To Follow****

More - From The Corner:

UPDATE: Brendan Loy looked at Obama's performance in the early exit polls and concludes "Obama generally does 7-8 points worse in the actual results than he did in the leaked, unweighted exit polls."

ANOTHER UPDATE: Yes, I know Drudge has the numbers reversed. I checked with my source, and this is what they've got. I have more than one source who hears the early exit poll numbers, and haven't yet heard from all of them.

Update: ABC News - Exit polls show negative campaigning hurt both Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton.... Hillary the hardest hit.

Update: ABC News - Too Close To Call CNN - 'Competitive Race'

Update: 1 in 10 say they switched parties for Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos to vote for Hillary Clinton. Don't adjust your monitor... it says 1 IN 10. A full 10% of the electorate...

Update: Drudge says the second batch of exit polls has Hillary up 52 to 48 over Obama. All signs point to the close race that Hillary Clinton was hoping dearly to avoid.

Update: Fox News - Too Tight To Call NBC News - Too Close To Call

Update: Hillary Clinton takes early lead as rural votes flood in.

Don't be fooled by an early surge by Clinton as all of the votes thus far come from Huntingdon, McKean and Wayne counties. Obama will catch up when the big city results flow in.

Update: It's official, Hillary Clinton wins Pennsylvania.

Update: Hillary's lead is bopping between 5 and 8 points...

Update: With 50% reporting Hillary leads by my prediction of 8. Only 50% of Philadelphia county has been tallied and Obama is winning by a wide margin there. However, others point out, if Hillary wins this by wide enough of a margin, she may actually take the lead in the popular vote. If she could pull this off, it would be huge for her campaign. I'll keep you up to date as the numbers roll in...

Update: It looks as if Hillary will take PA by between 8 and 10 points. This victory spells disaster for the Democratic party. If Clinton would have swept Obama by 14 or 15, superdelegates would have given her a second thought. If Obama would have pulled within 5 points or less or, even better, somehow was able to pull off a hail-mary win here, it would have been game over for Hillary. This, my friends, is more of the same. More uncertainty. More indecisiveness. More infighting. And the battle rages on...

Update: Hillary claims to raise 2.5 million + in the past few hours.

[Hillary Clinton Victory Speech] [Barrack Obama Concession Speech]

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